There is no Alpha (α) in Shipping

Companies, seen as going concerns, are usually valued as a multiple of their earnings or cash flows (selectively), reflecting that a buyer of a company will be generating profits in the years to come based on the business’ assets, contracts, reputation, management, corporate competitive advantage, etc Based on the nature of the business and market conditions, the preferred multiple can differ or modified to accommodate unique circumstances. Of course, there are exemptions to the rule. For instance, who could forget the dotcom years when internet startups where valued on “eyeballs” rather than actual cash flows, reflecting hope and ambition that the distant future will be rosiest?

And, then, there are ship-owning companies – on the other spectrum of company valuations. Shipping companies are asset-heavy entities since they own the vessels, expensive capital assets with long economic lives. The prospect is that these capital assets will be utilized to generate cash flows and earnings – and, logically, shipping companies ought to be valued of some multiple of cash flows or earnings rather than just the assets. Valuing a refinery company, for instance, at the cost of their plant value most likely would imply a liquidation or a fire-sale scenario and not a going concern.

For those paying attention to publicly listed shipping companies, the valuation metric is the so-called “NAV”, that is the Net Asset Value – that is, the current value of the fleet less outstanding debt (mortgages) plus cash in the bank or other tangible assets. That’s how publicly listed companies are valued, as the value of the “steel” (ships) with little immediate consideration for earnings. In general, shipping companies are valued at or below NAV – effectively, if one were to liquidate the business would end up with the same or more hard cash in their bank account. Philosophically speaking, being dead (liquidated) has a higher price than being alive (going concern); this does not exactly sound very inspiring…

Perusing a current research report from a major investment bank one sees that the mean stock price of shipping equities stands at 0.97x of NAV and the median at 0.87x; with the exception of two companies that have long term contracts for their fleets (MPLs in the LNG space) that trade above NAV, more or less, any other shipping company trades at a discount to NAV; even the mighty Maersk with its hundred-plus year old name, gloried history, global reach and household name “doesn’t get no respect” – below NAV valuation, too; one tanker company actually at the time of this writing trades at 0.60x of NAV, meaning that if the stock price per share represents $10 worth of shipping assets, the price of the share stands at only $6. Ouch!

Shipping freight rates fluctuate over time and shipping asset values move accordingly with some time lapse and a varying degree of correlation. And, it’s well known that, unlike other assets that only depreciate, shipping assets do also appreciate in price. In a hot freight market, ships get more valuable despite their age. Low NAVs follow weak freight markets and usually indicate the prospects of freight rates are anemic in the near future, which is the current state of the market.

Theoretically, from an investment point of view, there is an arbitrage opportunity and money to be made between undervalued shipping equities (buy the stock or sell the ships when NAV is low) or sell shares when stock trading above NAV; and there has been just a case of the management team of two affiliated publicly listed shipping companies that have presented to the investment community an arbitrageur model of making money in shipping, buying back their own stock when below NAV or selling their ships when overvalued. Unfortunately such an investment strategy has not played well in real life in this case; many reasons, in our opinion, that the arbitrageur model has not panned out well, but let’s say that real life in the shipping industry is more challenging than an investment proposal often assumes.

The paradox, and a disheartening fact, in our opinion, remains that shipping companies are valued according to the value of their hard assets. There is zip premium for brand name (or “franchise”) value, for intellectual property, for charters and other contracts in place, for intangibles, and, regrettably for management expertise. And, if one adheres literally to the valuation definition, a below NAV valuation implies that the company’s management team not only does not add value to the firm, but, in a sense, is a liability to the firm. One gets the firm cheaper than one can buy the assets. Ouch!

From an investment point of view, one could argue that shipping management teams offer little alpha (α) – the premium return over the market return. Their expertise, knowledge, efforts and hard work mean precious little when it comes to adding value; the shipping equity stocks move along the beta (β) of the market, without adding any value. Ouch, again! Unless, there are concerns with the agency theory

Shipping company management teams most obviously generate value by timing vessel acquisitions and disposals, mainly by buying ships when they are cheap or undervalued. Effectively, it’s a focus on market beta (β) and market timing versus capturing alpha (α) by building and running a superior business. And, by focusing on beta – instead of alpha – there is a re-emphasis of a trading model at the expense of an operating business model, one to focus on generating profits from running the ships and not trading the ships themselves.

Some have argued that the public markets with their short-termism, regulatory constraints and poor valuation metrics are not the ideal source of capital for the shipping companies. Irrespective of whether such criticism is valid, the shipping industry is ripe for a shipping company management team that will be able to provide a superior business model and convince the investors to value shipping companies on metrics that go beyond the value of the “steel”.


And, just for the record, Basil M Karatzas, Founder and CEO of Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co., is an Accredited Senior Appraiser (ASA) for Machinery & Equipment by the American Society of Appraisers.


Love the “steel”, hate the shipping stock! Image credit: Karatzas Images


© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

 

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Where Money in the Maritime Industry Will Come From?

Ships are expensive assets, even small pleasure boat owners know. A small handysize bulker of 32,000 dwt has cost no less than $20 mil as a newbuilding even during weak markets; on the other hand of the spectrum, crude oil supertankers (VLCCs) currently cost appr. $85 mil brand-new, while LNG tankers cost almost twice as much.

Being a successful shipowner, therefore, requires access to capital, as plentiful and as at low cost as possible. Even flamboyantly rich shipowners do not have enough money to own outright their fleets (in most cases), and they have to depend on financial “leverage” and financial partnerships.

Banks traditionally had been providing most of the financing in the maritime industry; throughout business cycles, banks could be depended upon to provide 50-80% leverage, usually in the form of a first preferred ship mortgage – just like a bank would provide a mortgage loan for a residential property, with the asset as collateral. There have been dedicated banks to shipping (typically Scandinavian, British and German due to maritime history) and several more banks were transient in the industry when times were good. And, while easiness of financing varied depending on the phase of the business cycle, it was always available, as long as the shipowner had an impeccable record honoring previous commitments to the banks.

A decade after the Lehman Brothers collapse, banks are heavily regulated (although there is talk of late of loosening banking regulations, at least on one side of the pond), and ship mortgages and asset-backed financing are not the preferred line of business any more. In addition, many banks with shipping exposure are actively still selling shipping loans, trying to cut their exposure to the industry to nil. And, for many shipping banks with big losses from their shipping portfolios, it’s hard to convince senior management and shareholders on the appeal of the shipping industry these days anew; in some corners, shipping and maritime have become dirty words.

Besides small lending on a very selective basis by a handful of small banks for ship mortgages, so small that almost does not matter, traditional lending by the banks is a dead business. There is much more activity in terms of corporate lending to shipowners with big balance sheets and consolidated financials, and with long term and “bankable” charter employment, but there are relatively few such shipowners. The majority of the shipowners are smaller companies, trading their vessels in the spot market, and taking preponderous exposure to the vicissitude of the freight markets.

It has been estimated that shipping banks loan portfolios stood at close to $600 billion at the peak of the market in 2008, which is a very big funding gap to fill.

There has been a plethora of so-called credit funds entering the shipping finance market and aiming at filling the funding gap left behind by the shipping banks. Credit funds has been a new mania on the Wall Street, as such funds try to exploit the inability and inefficiency of the regulated banks to service small and mid-sized companies and companies that cannot “tick all the boxes” of a traditional lender. A recent article in the Financial Times states that between 2010 and now, credit funds based in North America doubled in capacity from app. $75 billion to more than $160 billion, so much so that “shadow banking” started being a concern. Credit funds active in shipping are usually funds dedicated to the industry and not part of multi-industry funds, and often are set up and managed by private equity funds and institutional investors with prior exposure to shipping. Fine print aside, credit funds usually charge at least 7% spread over Libor, with several of them well into double-digit territory. No-one expected credit funds to be as “cheap” as bank loans, but at 700 bps minimum margin, shipowners can barely claim that they have access to effective capital. After the honeymoon period of the first entrants to the market, credit funds cannot be the dependable source of capital the shipping industry requires, it seems.

Looking into equity, in the last decade, when the freight market was the best in a lifetime and equity markets were buoyant, there were several attempts of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) by several shipping companies. Their track-record aside, public equity markets at present are looking for only large (billion-plus balance sheet, etc) and well established shipping companies with a “story”, hopefully a story of growth; for many of the smaller shipowners, the public equity (and debt) markets cannot be considered a source of capital, another dead-end for shipping financing.

Chinese leasing recently has been in the news as many Chinese lessors are looking into expanding aggressively in the international shipping market, and they have been active with sale-and-leaseback transactions. Although more bureaucratic than western financing, their overall terms are rather lenient – but again, for shipowners with sizeable fleets and consolidated financials.

Many industry experts have been contemplating what the source of capital will be for shipping. It’s really a very critical question to answer, and we think, it will affect the nature of the shipping industry in the years to come. Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co even held a shipping finance conference in Athens in early 2018 focused on just such question, and a follow up conference is already in the works for January 2019. Because of shipping finance (and also new regulations, etc), we believe that the shipping industry is at an inflection point where drastic changes are about to take place. Likely shipping in the next decade and the decades to come will be of a different nature, and that’s mainly because the nature of the shipping finance is a-changing. A great deal of shipowners will be materially affected by it, unless they start being pro-active right away.


© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

 

A Matter of Shipping Interest

Interest rates are on the rise. The Fed recently increased the so-called Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% and two more increases are boringly expected within 2018. There had been two increases in 2017 for a total of 0.50%, thus, in two calendar years, interest rates moved up by 1.25%. The Fed Funds Rate stands at 1.50% at the time of this writing, which is materially below the historic average. The 2yr Treasure Bill yields appr. 2.27% while 10yr Treasuries yield 2.80%, at the time of this writing.

In the short term, the US economy seems to be approaching full employment, and the risk of inflation (and higher interest rates) cannot be ignored. Of course, there are still many events, emanating both from the US and the international stage, that can affect economic growth, trade, employment, and the course of interest rates. Excluding a major shock to the system, it can be taken as a given that interest rates are on the rise for the foreseeable future.

Higher interest rates and higher interest cost can be good for regulated banks, but it can be detrimental to industries that depend on cheap financing to thrive. The shipping industry, we can all agree, is a capital intensive industry as it requires big investments upfront for the acquisition of shipping assets, and the cost of financing is crucial for the success of a shipowner.

Higher interest rates logically should be a negative development for the shipping industry: for higher cost of necessary leverage (ship mortgages) directly affects the bottom line – and, there are few shipowners who can do without leverage.

There have been few headlines in the shipping / maritime trade press about the higher interest rates. Not sure whether the news has been underestimated, or whether the shipping finance industry is so dislocated at present that rising interest rates are of little concern to the industry, but the subject has almost gone un-noticed.

Traditionally, debt financing in the shipping industry has been obtained from shipping banks in the form of first preferred ship mortgages, at LIBOR (the short-term interbank rate) plus the so-called spread, the lender’s profit margin. Interest rates obtained from shipping banks have varied over time depending on market conditions (interest rates, etc) and also the banks’ own appetite to expand their shipping lending business which has varied through business cycles. Although the loan from a shipping bank was “floating”, as the total interest rate varied with the changing-over-time LIBOR, the hedge desk from the same shipping bank would arrange – at the request of the client, of course – for an interest rate hedge / swap, so that the borrower could hedge, at the time of the loan inception, the interest rate risk. One has to note that the absolute interest rate was depending on two main factors, overall lending market conditions (LIBOR) and the banks’ appetite for shipping risk (spread), and these two variables were not necessarily in sync at all times. The other noteworthy observation is that a shipping bank was offering full service solution to the client, both the shipping loan and the hedge for the interest rate risk.

In the last several years, it’s widely known that shipping banks have been withdrawing from the shipping industry (anyone remembers the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) or even Lloyd’s TSB?), and credit funds have been moving into the shipping lending market. Given that institutional investors are behind such funds with higher return hurdles, the cost of borrowing from credit funds is much higher than that of the shipping banks. Still, credit funds express their interest rate offers in terms of LIBOR plus their spread over LIBOR, with usually the spread ranging in the 6-10% band. As a matter of comparison, traditionally shipping banks were (and, to the extent still active today, are) lending at 1-4% spread.

Reflecting… Image credit: Karatzas Images

No-one can blame the credit funds for being so expensive as their capital base is much different than that of a bank. [And, many would argue that shipping banks were mispricing risk and offering too cheap loans in the first place, but that’s a topic beyond the scope of this article, valid point nevertheless, in our opinion.] Also, no-one can blame credit funds that are not full service financial providers as they do not offer interest rate hedging, and shipowners / borrowers have to source it independently from banks, not an easy undertaking in today’s market when banks are disinterred in the shipping industry or in ad hoc clients and projects. The bottom line is that all ship mortgages and other debt financing instruments and transactions taken place via institutional investors are not hedged and most are fully floating and exposed to the rising interest rate environment. The cost is not inconsequential as 1% increase in interest rates reflects $27 per diem higher interest cost per each million borrowed; for a typical panamax bulker with a $10 mil mortgage from a credit fund, the 1.25% Fed rate bump in two years (included the expected twice in 2018) reflect $320 per diem additional daily financing cost, all being equal. For reference, the Baltic Exchange’s most recent report has BPI time-charter equivalent at $12,011 per diem (which incidentally is much higher than last year). $320 per diem incremental financing cost when the ship earns $12,011 per diem is not negligible, and this is still under an environment of well-behaving financial (and stock) markets presuming very rosy outcomes and being “priced to perfection”.

The shipping finance market is materially dislocated at present and the step-wise increases of interest rates by the Fed are a small problem to have in a much more challenging market. The concern however is that rising interest rates is a headache the market is ill prepared to deal with at present, and given that many borrowers (and lenders) are already stretched, there is minimal room for error. Anecdotally, we are aware of a couple of cases where shipowners trying to replace their 8% spread from credit funds with new financing, and not because they have expectations for lower interest rates.

It’s been a while since the shipping industry has been moving from one ring to a lower ring in what in business is called “vicious cycle”, when strategic errors keep compounding, further driving companies and the industry deeper into Dante’s Inferno.

Higher interest rates, in all likelihood, would push institutional investors and credit funds to increase their spreads as well, as now, in a new interest rate environment, their expected returns have to increase as well. Credit funds may theoretically opt to compete with each other on price (spread) in order to gain market share, or possibly decide to curtail their lending activities in shipping, neither option being a great outcome for the shipping industry.

Rising interest rates is not a laughing matter for the shipping industry, especially for the shipowners who went on the limb to borrow expensively in the hopes of out-running the business cycle. We would expect more news (and honestly more advisory work) from these developments.

Calm seas but not calm shipping… Image credit: Karatzas Images


© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

 

Boats of the Highly Levered Seas

There used to be a time when the financing options for a shipowner where simple: seed capital was levered with a ship mortgage from a bank, and the loan was paid off based on an agreed-upon principal repayment profile from the operating profit. The terms of the shipping loans from banks were very similar and often the only differentiating factors for shipping loans were a few quantitative factors, principal among them the so-called spread, the difference over Libor for the cost of the debt.

Obviously, for any rational borrower, the lender with the lowest cost (interest rate) would get the business. When all things were equal, it was easy to note the sole differentiating factor, and push for the lowest number. Borrowers (shipowners) did not really have to create an “indifference curve”, their optimal set of choices. The leverage was in the 60-70% of FMV, the terms and covenants comparable, and thus the choices were limited. The “product” was one-dimensional and business was earned on the lowest spread.

Now that we live in times where by necessity there have been more types of capital than seed capital and traditional debt, such as alternative capital, mezz, senior and junior debt, etc, there is a greater opportunity to see the choices of preference for the shipowners.

There are funds that provide senior lending at only 500 basis points (5%) over Libor, but they do so at rather conservative terms, such as by lending in the 50-60% range of the FMV in today’s depressed asset pricing market environment. We would think that such financing is both cost competitive (in absolute terms) and also acts as prudent financial gearing for an owner to maximize returns and stay flexible when market conditions turn bad.

On the other hand, there are funds that provide close to 80% leverage, or even more, but at much higher cost, typically in the 8-12% range plus expectations of profit sharing, etc. The financial gearing is almost as sizeable as in the go-go days of the stratospheric market of a decade ago, but such levels of financial gearing add a lot to the costs of running profitably a vessel, and also multiplies the risk that when markets turn bad, the whole financial structure will not stand for more after the first few waves of the crisis reach the beach.

The options outlined above are as distinct as they can get, and although there are a few shades of gray between these two opposites, borrowers (shipowners) seem to gravitate to either of these polar opposites in terms of debt financing. And, watching shipowners make choices in the present market offers some insights on he direction of the market, the utility curves of the shipowners, their willingness to pay at various ranges of the curve, their risk appetite or risk aversion, and the inflection points thereof.

Even after the debacle of the last decade and the massive decade and rather fair prospects looking forward for shipping, there is a clear trend whereby shipowners prefer the high leverage, high cost (and high risk) option set over the low leverage, low cost (and low risk) alternative. There are many more shipowners who would rather borrow 80% of the value of a ship at 8% (spread) interest than shipowners who would borrow 55% at 5% (spread) interest. Credit funds and lenders in the former category are much more active than lenders in the latter camp.

Stephen, the Roaring Lion. Image credit: Karatzas Images

Apparently, shipowners (borrowers) seem to think that this is a time for “risk on” investments and thus higher financial gearing (at higher cost) makes sense. Asset prices, in the dry bulk market especially, are up by 30-50% on average in the last eighteen months, and thus, allegedly a high stakes strategy has paid off. Improving world economies and trade, and a historically low newbuilding orderbook add more fuel to the argument. But, playing the proverbial devil’s advocate, adjusted for risk, is a 50% asset appreciation investment justified on an 8% cost of debt?

In general, over the last decade, cost of capital (mostly debt) is going up in shipping. Interest rates have gone up, especially when they are expressed in terms of spreads. And, leverage overall has come down in shipping in the last decade. Likely, when shipowners (borrowers) are slowly adjusting their financing cost expectations, they seem to focus more on (and prefer) higher gearing at the trade of cost. In a theoretical binary choice of “give me more leverage or give me lower cost”, they are for the former, hands down. It may be that it takes a lot of time for habits to die?

High leverage at high cost has its risk, as mentioned. Already there are several transactions in the market where borrowers have already run into trouble and they desperately look to refinance high-priced transactions based on this structure. There are ships that have been arrested or are very close to arrest, ships financed with high leverage at high cost. And this is at a time when 2017 and 2018 freight rates are dreamboats of the 2015 and 2016 monster freight markets. Thus, in a relatively decent freight market, these high leverage preferences do not seem to always work out very well. We are afraid that after the debacle of private equity investments in 2011/2014 going sour in a major way and resulting in massive write-downs, the industry is setting itself up for another round of misguided investments powered by institutional money.

Shipping is a unique industry with its high volatility and risk at an operational level as this can be counted by the spot freight market (in the last eighteen months, BDI has been up by a factor of 5 but down 40% in the last month or so). Financial gearing over operational gearing can easily get out of hand.

But again, how fortunes have been made… or…

Stitt, the Quiescent Lion. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

Disruption Has Come to Shipping

agw/wp/ucae/wog.

Only if I had a penny every time I had to spell out these terms to a financier dealing with commercial terms for the delivery of a vessel. It sounds almost like gibberish, but for those in the knowing, these are very clear terms and have saved many a shipowner or charterer from undue legal headaches. (For more shipping abbreviations, please see our S&P blog here!) These abbreviations are standard language and stand for All Going Well / Weather Permitting / Unforeseen Circumstances All Exempted / With Out Guarantee. They are the remnant of past reality, when Telex was the primary way of communicating commercial information in a time sensitive manner, and, text transmitted was charged by the number of the charterers consisting it. Really.

This was a time when people had to economize with their words due to technical and accordingly economic considerations. Had to be succinct since additional characters cost money; then, the telefax replaced the telex and transmitting was charged by the page, and eventually email has become the prominent way of transmitting information, which effective is free (besides a nominal monthly fixed cost for the connection). For those nostalgic of telex, Twitter had set a limit of 140 characters (now 280), but this was for other than economical considerations. And, the 280-character limit, Twitter does not stop someone for blabbing all they want; again for free.

The Internet has been changing the way the shipping industry is functioning. For starters, business has become much more transparent and efficient, and so far has affected the economics of auxiliary services such as ship-brokerage, charter brokerage, supplies and victualing, etc It has also affected documentation and certification for statutory and regulatory inspections, maintenance, communications, cargo and commercial documents, etc And, in the next phase of technology, the actual operations, management and trading of the ships are coming into focus.

When the Internet was “invented” in the 1990s and for the “dot com” mania, technology was still a novelty; too bulky and still very expensive in terms of computers and computer code, and, quite frankly, shipping was not the ideal industry for B2B (business-to-business) applications to start with. Two decades onwards, the cost of technology has come dramatically down, there are many app developers knowledgeable with new platforms, and more importantly, there has been a universal push to employ technology for both substituting for routine business and mainly “dig data” for making informed decisions. In the last decade, technology has had only an evolutionary impact on the shipping industry; however, looking forward, the impact can become revolutionary, or as they say, “disruptive”, in the sense it can disrupt existing industries from doing business “as always have been done”. Disruptive technologies effective force established industries to do business on a new set of economics and market drivers: physically hailing a taxi but now booking car service via an app (known standards of safety, security, timing, pricing, service, etc, with possibly automated cars in the future) is one of the most simplistic ways for one to understand “disruption”.

The impact of technology so far has been subdued and only limited to certain, well defined areas such as automation, digitization, etc It has just been complimentary to the industry by providing efficiencies and cutting costs, sometimes at the expense of shifting business models for a few complimentary service industries. However, looking forward, it seems we are almost of the cusp of major paradigm shifts that can change the market. For instance, brokerage – whether S&P and chartering – could be completely substituted by online platforms. What would stop a charterer from posting their business online and then get to choose the best bidder (ship) at the optimal price? What would stop a shipowner from posting their ship online for sale once the decision is made to divest of the asset? All these are commoditized products (cargoes, routes, ships, etc) and once a platform attracts critical mass, the market becomes much more efficient. And, execution of contract on an online platform, is just a formality.

As ships and cargoes getting connected, “Internet of Things” (IoT) can help with more efficient transport and optimizing the supply chain (translating to lower shrinkage, pilferage, spoilage, etc and of course lower financing trade costs). IoT can help from preventive maintenance onboard ships to minimizing to cost of repairs, but mainly can lead to automation of shipping and effectively to man-less ships. If airplanes with human cargo can be trusted on auto-pilots for most of the flight, it’s hard to see what would stop ships from navigating the seas on their own. And, one step further, “big data” and artificial intelligence can allow for predictive analysis of business trends and expected cargo movements. Probably, all these sound like a sci-fi scenarios with a remote hope of application. Instead of a counter-argument, one has to pay attention to a modern automobile and try to draw similarities to shipping. If a highly regulated and fragmented industry (automakers) with a much higher degree of human interaction can see their way to driver-less cars, it would not be too hard for ships to follow. Naval engineering remained a “bulk” and material-heavy discipline for the last several decades, just like cars used to be at Detroit’s glory days; however, a shift to more intellectual power is seems to be coming.

Ships are very expensive assets and often industry players prefer to stick with what it’s known and proven rather than take un-necessary risks; it’s an applaudable approach, but again, there is a paradigm shift when one has to jump into the future. Imaging being the last shipowner who built the last clipper ship only to see the steam engine cannibalizing the market. Change will come irrespective of the hesitancy by shipowners because other industries and companies from other industries will force their way on shipping. It is estimated that one-fifth of the containerized cargo moves on account of Walmart. While Walmart has taken a more cavalier approach to transport, Amazon has been much more aggressive and technology savvy. While at earlier stages, Amazon was completely dependent on UPS and FedEx for their shipments, now they building their own fleet of cargo planes and vehicles and hiring people for deliveries, just a step before deliveries with drones. It’s only a matter of time before Amazon will start shaking the containerized shipping industry. Would one think that other bulk commodity owners such as Vale, etc will not play the game?

Disrupted long time ago… Image credit: Karatzas Images


© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

 

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. to Host Shipping Finance Conference in Athens, Greece

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co Proudly Hosts the Shipping Finance Conference 2018 in Athens, Greece, on February 22nd,  in co-operation with Slide2Open and Boussias Communications.

Please join a group of high caliber speakers and thought leaders in the maritime industry discussing the current state of the shipping industry, the challenges and opportunities looking forward, in presentations, panel discussions and Q&A sessions in modules ranging from shipping finance and investment opportunities to disruptive technologies and e-commerce in shipping and related industries. This will the first conference in this agenda-setting must-attend series of events on shipping and shipping finance to  be hosted by Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co and their business associates.

We are looking forward seeing you in Athens on February 22nd, 2018!


© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.

For the Shipping Industry, a Matter of Interest and Indebtedness

Ever since shipping banks (and banks in other industries) have been curtailing their lending to shipowners (and for other banks outside shipping to small and middle-market companies), there has been a big funding gap, a market need, that has to be filled for the economy to grow. Many credit funds or alternative capital funds have popped in shipping that lend money for those who look for financing to buy or refinance ships. On a broader scale, many brand-name private equity funds have been setting up credit funds in order to serve the market need of lack of debt financing in numerous industries; with more regulation for banks (among other things), un-regulated lenders step in to serve the market.

There are substantial differences in the way a bank evaluates a loan in shipping than a credit funds approaches the market; although effectively they both look to undertake credit risk (they both lend money), there are always more types of risk entangled around credit: asset risk, operational risk, counterparty risk, etc No doubt that credit funds, as non-regulated lenders typically, have much more flexibility of the structures and the terms of the loans they can underwrite. For starters, credit funds can also take a little or a lot of residual asset risk (balloon payments, etc), market risk (profit sharing, etc), asset risk (finance older vessels, etc), that is, they can think outside the “credit risk” box and provide commercially more flexible structures (of course, at a higher cost of capital.) Also, since credit funds are not regulated, when there is a default of a loan, there is no reporting to a regulatory body which would have consequences on ratios and strategy; a credit fund would have the precious luxury to convert late payments to equity or accept payment-in-kind (PIK) or impose a higher profit sharing scheme and eventually take over the asset, if things really go bad. To be sure, a default for a loan is a painful experience for all those involved, for the shipowner / borrower of course, and also for the financier / creditor, whether the creditor is a regulated bank or a credit fund as practically no-one wishes for such an outcome of default (unless the lender is really a niche vulture fund specializing on feeding on carcasses and liquidation, but honestly, this is the exception than the rule.)

The typical credit fund these days would charge approximately 8% interest for a first preferred ship mortgage; for some, this is expressed as annual interest in absolute terms, but for others, it’s the spread over Libor (L+800 bps), meaning that the borrower also undertakes interest rate risk (at a time when the Fed and other central banks shifting to a tightening mode.) The amount of leverage is dependable, but most likely it populates in the 60-70% range, inlying that still a respectable percentage of equity is required; of course, more equity means that the shipowner has to be selective with their projects and also that the credit risk for the creditor goes down as the percentage of equity goes up. Although some credit funds can accept a bullet payment of the principal (under certain circumstances), a certain level of amortization is required for most cases. And, there are the usual assignment of earnings, minimum value clause, minimum liquidity clause, negative covenant clauses, and also pledge of shares, undated signed director resignations, and, more frequently these days, demands for a personal or corporate guarantee. All in all, the loan terms these days seem to be the extreme opposite of the easy credit days of a decade ago of name lending and loans agreed on a handshake.

Although a few short years ago shipowners would never had conceded to a first preferred ship mortgage with an interest rate above 4-5% or other funky terms, these days there are few options, and thus the reason that 8% has become the prevailing cost of the debt for ship mortgages. Different types, different norms, as said before.

For a theoretical example of a five-year modern panamax bulker valued at $22 mil and 65% leverage and five year term, at 8% annual interest, the daily interest payment alone is appr. $3,000 per diem; presuming that there is a requirement for the principal to be amortized by 50% over the term of the facility, then another $4,000 pd had to be added to the financing payments. Based on a back-of-the-envelope assumption of $6,500 pd vessel daily operating expenses, the cash expenses for operating such a ship range from $9,500 – $13,500 pd; just as a reminder, only in the last eight months panamax freight rates sustainably moved above $10,000 pd, meaning that many borrowers, at best, they were breaking even in the last eighteen months. Of course, there is the hope for higher asset prices and higher freight rates, but, as they say, hope does not make for a good business plan. This model of 8% cost of debt financing would never work with modern, expensive ships (as the interest payment would become exorbitant in today’s freight market), while older tonnage (to the extent that a credit fund can be enticed enough to consider it) has more favorable economics.

There are a few corollaries to the prevailing market practices that need come elaboration:

  1. the cost of debt financing has moved to such high levels that it’s barely economically feasible to undertake new projects or buy ships for the smaller, independent shipowner
  2. borrowers undertake severe interest rate risk at a time when interest rates are moving higher (unlike a shipping bank with its interest rate swap desk that offered a full package, credit funds do not offer such service, and the borrower has to search a dis-incentivized market for this product for effectively project finance and small amounts)
  3. there is a lot of risk for both the borrower and the creditor under such scenario of high interest rates, and it will not take much for many of these financing projects to be underwater, so to speak
  4. as several more tight covenants have been added to these types of loans, in the event of defaults, it can be really ugly; if the overall market turns south (an unlikely scenario for now, but as we have learned, in shipping even unlikely scenarios are probable), there will be a massive cascading problem (credit funds will not be as cavalier as shipping banks with arresting ships, but then how they would be operating them or sell them in a declining market?)
  5. with so many credit funds having been set up for shipping, potentially there could be the possibility of them having to compete and lowering their standards in order to gain business; we are well aware of at least one credit fund that between April and October 2016 made a complete U-turn on their credit underwriting as they could not get one deal done.
  6. as cost of debt financing is too high, many financial sources keep looking entering the market which likely would undermine the credit fund market; we are working with a Chinese-originating fund providing first preferred ship mortgages at 5% interest for 50-60% leverage and very normalized covenants.
  7. disappointedly, for credit funds being private equity funds and well versed in structured finance, their proposed structures are extremely monolithic and inflexible, which will cost them a lot over the long term; being unregulated and flexible, only imagination could limit structures where they could make big returns if they were willing to be flexible and exchange some credit risk for some market risk and some asset risk and some residual risk and some counterparty risk and some… All credit funds have been pigeon-holed into credit, they compete heads-one with every other credit fund, and the only reason they do business now is that shipping is desperate for capital; this market could easily move away. But again, most of these credit funds have been run by former shipping bankers with some trying to exonerate themselves for the shipping bank mistakes of the last decade…

For now for sure, shipping debt is an interest-ing market to watch…

For some, a foggy market… One World Trade Center in Downtown Manhattan. Image credit: Karatzas Images

© 2013 – present Basil M Karatzas & Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.  All Rights Reserved.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:  Access to this blog signifies the reader’s irrevocable acceptance of this disclaimer. No part of this blog can be reproduced by any means and under any circumstances, whatsoever, in whole or in part, without proper attribution or the consent of the copyright and trademark holders of this website. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that information here within has been received from sources believed to be reliable and such information is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, no warranties or assurances whatsoever are made in reference to accuracy or completeness of said information, and no liability whatsoever will be accepted for taking or failing to take any action upon any information contained in any part of this website.  Thank you for the consideration.